When I talk to early-stage founders across Africa and beyond, one thing often strikes me: how many of us are so focused on building the product, the team, and the pitch, that we overlook the most basic truth of startup survival—
How much time do we actually have left?
Startups don’t die because the idea was bad. They die because they run out of money. And often, they didn’t see it coming.
The Illusion of Progress vs. the Reality of Burn
In the early stages, it’s easy to mistake motion for momentum. You’ve launched, hired, shipped your MVP. You’re in conversations with investors. Maybe even featured in the press.
But underneath the noise, your bank account is shrinking. Your monthly expenses—salaries, tools, infrastructure—are compounding. And unless you’re actively tracking your burn rate and runway, you could be three months from crisis without knowing it.
Burn rate is how much you’re spending each month. Runway is how many months you can keep going at that pace.
Two simple numbers. Yet for many founders, they’re a blind spot.
Why This Matters More Than Ever
In the 2020–2022 funding environment, some startups could afford to be loose with the numbers. Capital was abundant. Valuations were high. “Grow at all costs” felt normal.
That era is over.
Now, investors are asking sharper questions. Founders are being pushed to do more with less. And the startups that survive will be the ones that manage cash with discipline.
This isn’t about playing it safe—it’s about playing smart.
Runway Awareness Is a Leadership Skill
Knowing your numbers isn’t a finance function—it’s a founder function.
If you:
- Can’t clearly say how much you’re burning each month,
- Don’t know how many months you have left, or
- Haven’t pressure-tested what happens if your raise takes 6 months longer than planned—
You’re flying blind.
And if you’re fundraising, investors will ask.
In our work at Ingressive Capital, I’ve met incredible founders who had product-market fit, user growth, and a real shot—but they ran out of cash before they could cross the line. Not because they failed, but because they didn’t act early enough.
Clarity Changes Everything
When you know your runway:
- You make sharper hiring decisions
- You negotiate from a stronger place
- You give your team context, not confusion
- You plan, rather than panic
It doesn’t mean things won’t be hard—but it makes them manageable.
You can’t build if you’re guessing. And you can’t lead with confidence if you’re unsure how long the engine will keep running.
A Simple Place to Start
If this resonates and you want a quick gut check, Mercury built a Cash Burn Calculator. It’s simple, free, and helps you estimate your monthly burn and runway in seconds. I’ve seen several founders in our network use it as a starting point for more structured financial planning.
Final Thought
Founders often think their job is to push forward at all costs. But one of your most important responsibilities is to make sure your company has enough time to get it right.
You’re not just building a product. You’re building a runway—and trying to fly before it ends.
Track it. Stretch it. Protect it.
Your startup deserves to have a shot at lasting long enough to matter.
Maya Horgan Famodu Founder & Partner, Ingressive Capital Backing early-stage African tech founders building for scale.
