Ingressive Capital Market Trends Report for October 2023

Overview

Based on the metrics representative of our focus countries for October, it seems the momentum from July may have been lost; judging from the minimal updates in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Inflation Rates and Unemployment Rates, and maintenance of the status quo in Interest Rates.

GDP:

Egypt has not updated its figures since Q4 2022. This most likely due to its ongoing economic crisis and ballooning inflation. However, the government plans to launch 27 reform measures totalling $5billion from next month to help bolster its economy. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the current report, were Manufacturing ($10.1billion), Agriculture ($9.2billion), and Construction ($4.3billion).

Ghana has not released its Q3 2023 Report. As previously reported, there was a slight decline to 3.20% in Q2 2023 from 3.30% in Q1 2023, which was attributed to contractions in its Construction and Manufacturing subsectors. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the available/last report, were Services ($1.9billion), Agriculture ($900million), and Construction ($500million). Its Q3 2023 GDP is expected to tick up slightly again as its economic position continues to improve.

Kenya has not released its Q3 2023 Report. As previously reported, there was a slight increase to 5.40% in Q2 2023 from 5.30% in Q1 2023; following the incredible improvement from 3.7% in Q4 2022, which was attributed to its revived Agriculture sector. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the available/last report, were Agriculture ($3.4billion), Transportation ($1.6billion), and Manufacturing ($1.4billion). Its Q3 2023 GDP is expected to continue on an upward trajectory.

Morocco has not released its Q3 2023 Report. As previously reported, there was a significant decline to 2.30% in Q2 2023 from 3.50% in Q1 2023, which was attributed to an increase in Government spending that corresponded with a decline in investments. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the available/last report, were Services ($16.3billion), Manufacturing ($4.0billion), and Public Administration ($3.3billion). Its Q3 2023 GDP is expected to decline slightly due to reduced economic activity and tourism that followed the devastating earthquake that occurred in September.

Nigeria has not released its Q3 2023 Report. As previously reported, there was a slight increase to 2.51% in Q2 2023 from 2.30% in Q1 2023, which was attributed to the reforms instituted by the then, newly-elected President Tinubu. The top 3 contributors to its GDP, based on the available/last report, were Services ($9.9billion), Agriculture ($5.3billion), and Manufacturing ($2.0billion). Its Q3 2023 GDP is expected to decline significantly due to weak oil production and runaway inflation exacerbated the fuel subsidy removal.

NB: Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Services are major contributors to the GDPs of most African countries. This may a good indicator of sectors in which an infusion of technology could be GDP-transforming.

Inflation:

Inflation in Egypt for October 2023 has not been released.

The value in September 2023 was 38.00%. The value in August 2023 was 39.70%.

*The Egyptian Government has been able to stabilize the price of bread, grains, poultry, and meat.

Inflation in Ghana for October 2023 has not been released.

The value in September 2023 was 38.10%.

*The Ghanaian Cedi has been relatively stable since receiving the $3billion ECF from the IMF.

Kenya increased by 10 bps to 6.90% in October 2023.

The value in September 2023 was 6.80%.

*The marginal increase was again due to the increase in the prices of diesel, petrol, and kerosene.

Inflation in Morocco for October 2023 has not been released.

The value in September 2023 was 4.60%.

Inflation in Nigeria for October 2023 has not been released.

The value in September 2023 was 26.72%.

*The once celebrated reforms introduced by President Tinubu have increased the cost of living and economic hardship for most Nigerians even as [food] inflation balloons and the naira depreciates.

Interest:

The Central Bank of Egypt maintained the interest rate at 19.25% in October (from August). The rate was increased by 100 bps to 19.25% in August 2023.

The Bank of Ghana maintained the interest rate at 30.00% in October (from July). The rate was increased by 50 bps to 30.00% in July 2023.

The Central Bank of Kenya maintained the interest rate at 10.50% in October (from June). The same rate has been maintained since June 2023.

The Bank Al-Maghrib of Morocco maintained the interest rate at 3.00% in October. The same rate has been maintained since March 2023.

The Central Bank of Nigeria maintained the interest rate at 18.75% in October (from July). The rate was increased by 25 bps to 18.75% in July 2023.

NB: Egypt, Ghana, and Nigeria have high interest rates as they grapple with relatively high inflation.

Unemployment:

The Q3 2023 Unemployment Report for Egypt has not been released. However, it was 7.00% in Q2 2023.

Unemployment rate in Ghana has not been updated (3.90% in Q4 22 YOY). However, it is expected to reduce in line with the improvements in its economy.

Unemployment rate in Kenya has not been updated (4.90% in Q4 22 YOY). However, it is expected to reduce in line with the boom in the Agriculture and Services sectors.

Unemployment rate in Morocco increased by 110bps to 13.50% in Q3 2023. However, it was 12.40% in Q2 2023.

The Q3 2023 Unemployment Report for Nigeria has not been released.

However, it was 4.1% in Q1 2023.